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QuantumXl 2013

Decision Trees


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Decision Tree is a visual decision making tool where the Expected Value or Expected Cost of a decision is structured and evaluated. It consists of branches and 3 types of nodes (decision nodes, probability nodes and terminal nodes). After the initial tree has been created, you can easily customize it by adding or removing elements.


One of the weaknesses associated with Risk Trees is a disagreement of the probabilities of each branch. Monte Carlo simulation can allow all voices to be heard by modeling a range of possibilities instead of a single scenario.

How to create a decision tree

  • Go to Quantum XL > Additional Tools > Decision Trees > Create Initial Tree. This will create a Decision Tree in a new worksheet.
  • Customize it by adding or removing elements. In order to customize the tree:
    • Move the mouse pointer over a Decision Tree element (node or a branch)
    • Left Click Decision Tree element
    • Select an option from the pop-up menu

Running Monte Carlo simulations

  • Mark probability value as Quantum XL input
  • Mark Decision values as Quantum XL outputs
  • Run Expected value analysis